Deloitte Forecasts a 3.5% to 4.6% Surge in Holiday Retail Sales
In its annual holiday retail forecast, Deloitte predicts a significant upswing in holiday retail sales for the upcoming 2023 season. The renowned consultancy firm anticipates that sales will soar between 3.5% and 4.6% during the November to January period, reflecting a positive outlook for the retail industry.
In 2022, holiday sales experienced remarkable growth, surging by 7.6% during the same time frame. Deloitte's latest projections, however, suggest that while sales are expected to continue climbing, the pace of growth is likely to be more measured compared to the previous year.
One key highlight of Deloitte's forecast is the burgeoning e-commerce sector. The firm foresees year-over-year e-commerce sales growth ranging from 10.3% to 12.8% for the 2023-2024 holiday season. This robust growth trajectory is expected to propel e-commerce holiday sales to an impressive range of $278 billion to $284 billion.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” noted U.S. economic forecaster Daniel Bachman. “Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season.”
Despite the ongoing challenge of rising prices and inflation, Nick Handrinos, Vice Chair at Deloitte LLP and U.S. Retail, Wholesale, and Distribution and Consumer Products Leader, expressed optimism about the holiday retail landscape. According to Nick, "retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending" and "retailers who remain flexible to shifting consumer demand and behaviors will likely be poised for growth this holiday season."